You were warned! Here’s a quick rundown of those Olympic things that excite me and (because fundamentally I will never not be a little bit of a curmudgeon) , those things that really don’t…..
Cycling
Men’s & Women’s Road Races (Saturday 6 & Sunday 7 August)
Men – As the “Evil Empire” Team Sky Procycling pull on Red/White & Blue Skinsuits for the day, with newly crowned triple Tour de France winner Froome-Dog Millionnaire and double Olympic Goldist Gerraint Thomas presumably doing rock-paper-scissors* to decide who breaks it to Steve Cummings and whichever Yates brother isn’t banned that they’ll be working for the bigger names. Real good shout for a GB Medal here, especially as Peter Sagan has chosen to forsake his normal podium spot to go ride bouncy mountain bikes instead (making Sunday 21 August far more intriguing btw).
*Go after 3, not on 3.
Women – My early shout for BBC sports personality of the year has been Lizzie Armitstead, who has more than filled the cleats of the retired (/horse-racing) Victoria Pendleton, who now like Chris Boardman pedals bikes through Halfords’ tills and not around velodromes. Armitstead comes into Rio on the back of a hugely successful year, which may perhaps be eclipsed by the recent controversy of her ‘provisional suspension’ and subsequent acquittal for missed (not failed) drug tests. This story seemed to go under the radar, only raising it’s head days before the start of the games once it has been confirmed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) that she could indeed compete, and I now wonder if this explains her absence from the La Course one-day race at the culmination of the Men’s Tour de France (I should check, but doubt there’ll be a trustworthy source on the matter). The rhetoric, fortunately, seems to revolve more around the legitimacy of her participation given that she only contested the first of 3 missed tests after she’d missed the third, which triggered the suspension threshold (2 year ban), and very little suggestion is being made of Lizzie actually being a drugs cheat (although obviously there will always be insinuation). Illuminating articles of the difficulty faced by athletes in jumping through the administrative hoops of the “whereabouts system” and anecdotes of athletes falling into these traps make me more empathetic to the situation, although other athletes have been quick to sling mud with the ‘your job is to get this right’ retort.
In any case, Armitstead is in, setting up a truly compelling showdown with multi-time all-everything GOAT-nominee Marianna Vos, the brilliant story of the established champion hoping to return to domination after an injury absence that allowed for the rise to prominence of the young upstart, although road racing is so unpredictable that the smart money would be that neither will win Gold.
Oh yeah, and the Road Time-Trials have good stories too, with a women unfortunate enough to have the same name as Lance’s former wife, Kristin Armstrong, looking to 3-peat Gold, plus somewhere Sir Dave B will be shouting “Go on Frooooomey” as the Mount Ventoux jogger bum-wiggles towards a second successive podium.
Track Cycling (Thursday 11 – Tuesday 16 August)
Huge GB hope all over this one, although the entire programme has taken several hits during the last ‘cycle’. The Women’s Team Pursuit squad were, 2 years ago, much heralded as the possibly the most dominant team in sports, as in all of SPORTS, with only their own world records and internal competition from the squad to challenge them since the format changed from 3 riders doing 3000 metres to 4 riders doing 4k. Australia seemed to need a little longer to adapt to this, but eventually caught up at such a pace that they’ve overtaken GB, setting a World Record whilst becoming World Champions last year. Couple this with the huge controversy several months back, which has largely ‘gone away’ in the British press, that saw the head honcho step-down amid allegations of sexism and bullying, and things certainly don’t seem to be quite as shipshape as they were under Brailsford.
However, far from the wheels falling off, GB still have multiple multiple World Champions who are legitimate Gold contenders, as well as the feel-good story of the un-retired Bradley Wiggins and the un-dead Mark Cavendish, the latter seemingly having resurrected his road career quite possibly because of his desire to compete for Olympic track medals (notably mentioned as ‘medal’ not ‘Gold’ whenever I’ve heard him talk of ambition). With ‘Sir Wiggie Smalls’ (copyright Jack Whitehall) and Cav getting the band back together for a World Championship in the Madison earlier this year, things are looking good for both, although the more cynical side of my mind does wonder how convenient it is that Cav’s selection, which is far from a cut-and-dry choice given his relatively mediocre performances in his chosen Olympic event of the Omnium and the strength of his competition for that place from admittedly less popular riders, coincided so well with the fallout from the aforementioned difficulties. It was like skysports cleared their website of all the ‘bad things said about GB cycling’ stories with buffering filler along the lines of ‘Cav hopeful to be selected’, ‘Wiggins makes non-committal remark supporting all riders’, ‘Cav still hopeful for Rio, still….’. But yeah, Wiggo et al have a real shot at Gold in their Team Pursuit, and if Laura Trott doesn’t medal she’s sure to lose her signature braided ponytails in the name of marginal gains.
Diving (Sunday 7 – Friday 12 August)
British wonder child is now all grown up, to the point that Tom Daley’s biggest challenge may not come from competitors, but from the ability to manage the physical deterioration a rigorous Olympic schedule will put on his body, after a career staring very young on the arduous 10m board. He’s also facing the peculiar challenge of executing his signature “Firework” dive, a much more difficult twisting maneuver developed by his coaching team for him due to tyhe fact he can’t do the easier orthodox variant. But my main investment is with his synchro-partner, Danny Goodfellow, who I got to know over several years working at a Holiday Playscheme he attended whilst he was perhaps 6-13. Having won Gold with TD in the recent Europeans, there’s some good hope that the cheeky, perpetually eating, ‘jolly Goodfellow” will get himself chained with an audacious medallion far sturdier than the 20p “Winner” plastic medal we’d invariably award him for mad trampoline skills back in the day.
Track & Field (you’ll know when it’s on!)
4 years ago Greg Rutherford was the absolute epitome of what I believed to be wrong with the ‘Olympic fever’ engulfing the nation. Here was this unknown chancer in a sport no-one really follows, lucking out on an improbable culmination of events that saw all the expected medal contenders either not in attendance or under-perform, whilst he managed to ride the wave of GB glory and long-jumped to the upper limit of his ability, winning the event with a mediocre distance when compared to the leading jumps that season. Since then, I’ve realized he’s brilliant, and the fact he’s reliably brought his best when it matters most is in-itself quite compelling, raising the debate of potential vs performance as an indicator of greatness. Also, he’s really congenial from the media appearances I’ve seen, doesn’t take himself too seriously, is open and frank about the fact that yes, he shouldn’t have won in 2012, but the fact of the matter is he did. As ‘Dr’ Lou Holtz once said about championship games, “you don’t have to be the best team in the world, you just have to be the best team in the stadium” (incidentally, when checking the legitimacy of his ‘Dr’ prefix, wiki game me tyhis quote from his, also quite relevant here: Ability is what you’re capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.)
I’m not overly bothered by Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis-Hill (although any multi-eventer naturally deserves mucho respect) but believe there is possible World Record jeopardy in the Men’s High-Jump. Obvs we all want Bolt to burn the track up whilst drinking a can of Lilt, preferably breaking MJs 400m record whilst celebrating his 200 win, and busting Powell’s total in the sandpit after his 100, just to give us a glimpse of what else he could have been. I’ll also be keeping an eye out for the winning time in the Women’s 100m hurdles, to see if it’s even in the same arena as the 12.20 Kendra Harrison set since not making the selection for the U.S. Team (casually breaking a near 20yr World Record in the process of ‘getting over it’).
Things I’m not fussed about
Any sport whereby the Olympics isn’t the pinnacle (Football, Boxing), especially when the rules are amended (remember the Dream Team in 1992 looking confused at the European 3point line), or whereby the top-stars abstain because it really matters not to them (Golf) automatically undermine their own interest. As superb as GB Rowing has been in my lifetime, the lack of the ‘Oarfathers’ (which I believe they’ve never been referred to as, rightfully), and the fact that as a Cantabrigian I’m upset whenever boats are not raced in a ‘bumps’ format, means I’m unlikely to watch too many athletes risking their health in the bacteria infested cesspits I’m lead to believe they’ll be competing in.
That gymnast dude that retired, became a d-list panel show guest, and is now pushing himself around a pummel horse again – good luck to him but much like the rest of you, I haven’t taken a blind bit of notice of him for 3 years, so why should we now? Equally, apparently, we have like the best swimmer ever in Team GB, but knowing nothing of him, how can I take any pride from his potential success?
Oh and horses doing sort-of-dance routines. No. Just no.
With this said, however, there is one other aspect of Team GB’s Olympic endeavors that I do think we can all get on board with:
Medal Counting
For the geekier stattos among us, especially those seeming with national pride, there is another contest, one which pits the entire Team GB against ‘the model’. Basically, using trend analysis, my good buddy Dr Balmer and his et al homies did them some number crunching, allowing for the fact that nations historically experience an increase in medals won in the games both immediately prior and after an Olympics they host. More resources are made available from the start of the host-application process (the ‘please choose us, look at how good our infrastructure will be’ effect), which only increases once the IOC chooses you (the ‘please kids become good so we don’t embarrass ourselves in front of the world’ effect) and carries over another 4 years (the ‘there’s still some money and public interest left over from the one we held’ effect).
The model in question predicted 39 in Beijing 2008, which GB out-performed with a sterling 47, but winning 18 more in London 2012 wasn’t as huge an increase as it seems, when the trend of history would have suggested 63. Now? Well according to the guy who I missed the biggest night of London 2012 with (we were probably trapeezing, hence the banner pic on this blog from that one time it ever happened in my life), anything below 46 medals will represent abject failure and all Team GBers should be taken out to pasture. This bar, set back in 2009 remember, is comparatively low compared to the range stated in this recent Sky Sports article of 47-79 (although the 48 medal target set since then is at the more conservative end).
So yes, get your planners out, wall-charts at the ready, smartfone applications set on stun, and enjoy – I’ll try and be here on a nightly basis to offer my thoughts on the events as they unfold.